Roto Front Office

Anatomy of a Slump

Do not adjust your sets, this really is a new and original entry at Roto Front Office.  Sort of.

Actually, we are borrowing from Balls, Sticks, & Stuff's post on Pat Burrell.  So, for those Burrell owners out there, here's a look at one of the more significant slumps of 2007.

The Range of a Rodin

Last weekend we took a look at starting pitchers who were getting significantly more help from their defenses than we would expect given their strikeout rates, walk rates, etc. and their team's typical defensive efficiency. Today, we'll do the opposite and examine several pitchers who are certainly holding up their end of the bargain while the fielders behind them are doing their best impressions of an Auguste Rodin work.

Greg Maddux is one such example -- his ERA is 3.67 and his FIP ERA is 2.50. Despite allowing very few line drives, only 14%, the Padres defense is performing at approximately the same efficiency as it is for other pitchers on the staff who allow higher line drive rates (line drives are the second hardest ball-in-play type to field, home run being first hardest).

But if Maddux thinks he has it bad, he should ask Paul Maholm of the Pirates.  Sure, his FIP ERA of 4.44 is nothing special, but his real ERA is more than a run higher despite allowing only 12% of balls in play to be line drives.

No one is snake bit the way Aaron Harang is however.  His FIP ERA is and exceptional 2.57, however his true ERA is almost two and a quarter runs higher.  The Reds' gloves only snag 64% of his balls in play.

As was the case with pitchers who were getting more help than expected from their defenses, we can expect these trends to regress to the mean over time.  So, if you own any of these three pitchers, you may want to hang in there, better days may be ahead. 

Pitchers Chasing Cars

Lee Trevino once said that there are two things in life that don't last, dogs who chase cars and pros who putt for pars.  I often think of that quote whenever I come across trends that are unlikely to be sustainable over time.

You can find such scenarios in any number of places in life, but one such example is pitchers who rely too heavily on their defenses to bail them out are probably going to pay for it at some point.

Below is a list of six pitchers that could at some point see their ERA's balloon like Barry Bonds bald head after he rubs it down with flaxseed oil.

            ERA   FIP   DER  TDER
R Hill     1.77  3.52  .813  .732
M Cain     3.08  4.15  .824  .712
J Marquis  2.09  3.90  .797  .732
M Buerhle  2.97  3.88  .795  .734
D Haren    1.75  3.41  .781  .718
J Maine    1.37  3.20  .778  .729

These are all pitchers whose peripheral statistics such as strikeouts, walks, home run rates, etc. do not support their current ERA [see FIP (fielding independent pitching)] and whose defenses are gathering up balls in play much more efficiently than their team does on average [see DER and TDER (defense efficiency ratio and team defense efficiency ratio)].

As you can see by looking at their FIP's they are still pitching well, just not as well as their raw ERA's would indicate.  So, if you are an owner of these six pitchers and have commanding leads in your league's pitching categories, you may not want to get too complacent.

References/Resources: The Hardball Times

Due to Do Better

There are a number of statistical tools available to help you determine if a hitter you expected more from is going to snap out of his paltry batting average.

One such tool is prOPS (predicted OPS), developed by JC Bradbury, an ecomonics professor and author of Sabernomics and The Baseball Economist.  prOPS uses a combination of batted ball types and rate stats to predict what a player's expected OPS should be given his performance.

Below is a smattering of players that, according to prOPS, should be expected to break out.

Player                Actual OPS         prOPS

Ryan Howard         .814                  .961

Adam LaRoche       .522                  .778

Albert Pujols          .811                  .914

Lance Berkman      .705                  .802

Andruw Jones        .852                  .918

Few of the players above are hitters you were going to cut lose anyway, but the point is, there is reason to believe you'll start seeing better results soon.